The dollar in Russia may rise at least twice.
The real price of the ruble is unknown today. The Central Bank of Russia did everything possible to keep the ruble from falling further, and its real price has become a mystery. However, it will not be possible to keep the ruble at this level for a long time. This is proved by the experience of the Russian Federation in previous crises. Russian Forbes writes about this.
The publication reminded that the Central Bank sharply raised the discount rate to 20%, removing money from the market, and Putin imposed strict currency restrictions, which artificially reduced the demand for foreign currency. In addition, exporters were instructed to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings. All these measures allowed to quickly stabilize the ruble's exchange rate against major world currencies. For some time, the ruble will strengthen the decision to convert trade in Russian gas into rubles.
“Dollars can now be bought” on paper “in almost all banks, but to withdraw cash or transfer them to another account, such as foreign, is prohibited. The spread of proposals is quite large, “the article reads.
But these proposals are the basis for the nascent black currency market, where you can buy, for example, cash dollars in the range of 110-120 rubles. It is likely that the main suppliers of currency now are those citizens who have exercised the right to withdraw $ 10,000 from their account once and decided to earn a little. However, over time, this flow will begin to dry up, and black cash will become much more expensive.
What will be the ruble exchange rate by the end of the year?
Experts draw parallels with the events of 2014. In February, the movement for the annexation of Crimea to Russia began, a referendum was held there on March 16, and a few days later a law was signed on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol in Russia. The dollar jumped from 35 rubles in February to 68 rubles at the end of 2014, which is almost twice as much.
The “special operation” started on February 24, and if we draw analogies with the Crimean history, by the end of 2022 we should expect 190 rubles per dollar, based on the Central Bank's February 24 exchange rate – 85 rubles. However, in 2014, the West did not block the reserves of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, did not impose currency restrictions and did not have such an unprecedented scale of sanctions. That's why I would use at least a triple “amplifier” along with the double factor. It cannot be ruled out that, other things being equal, if the geopolitical situation does not get significantly worse or even start to improve, by the end of 2022 we will be free to buy cash in the bank in the range of 190 to 255 rubles per dollar, “the article reads.
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