The Russian army still suffers from the same problems that led to its defeat in the northern regions. The Russian war against Ukraine has been going on for two months now. And the Kremlin has not been able to solve its fundamental problems. When Russia's army fought in the north, south, and east at once, it lacked infantry and trucks to win.
It now fights on only two fronts: the east and the south. But trucks and infantry became even less, – writes Forbes . Even if Russian artillery can break through the Ukrainian defense by allowing several tank battalions to enter, there are still not enough soldiers in Russia to protect these tanks and the flanks of the offensive. This is not to mention the preservation of fragile supply lines when they stretch for tens or hundreds of kilometers from the nearest railway.
Logistical problems doomed Russia's attempt to surround Kyiv in the first month of the war. The same logistical problems, exacerbated by an even greater shortage of infantry, could doom Russia's offensive in the east. Having lost thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, the Kremlin began withdrawing its defeated battalion tactical groups from the suburbs of Kyiv in late March. Those BTGs that were still able to fight made a long train journey to southeastern Ukraine to the long-occupied part of Donbass. There, they joined a new Russian offensive, trying to break through from the northern edge of the region to the south through the open steppes to the ruins of Mariupol.
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The idea is to “bypass” and cut off Ukrainian forces deployed along the line of demarcation in the western Donbass. But Russia has made little progress since the operation began on Tuesday.
“Trying to push from the north of Donbass to the south is what we are seeing now. But Ukrainians, they are fighting hard, not lying down, allowing the Russians to pass, “said an unnamed Pentagon official.
Paradoxically, a breakthrough through Ukrainian defense could actually create the conditions for Russia's defeat. Will 75 battalion tactical groups of the Russian Federation (of which there were 100 at the beginning of the war) be able to gather enough soldiers and tanks through a potential “hole” in the Ukrainian front to create their own solid 160-kilometer line from northern Donbass to Mariupol? Surrounding Ukraine's forces would mean that Russian forces could create their own strong fronts in the west and east. If during this flank maneuver the Russian forces will not be able to consolidate themselves, they risk being surrounded, cut off from security. And if that happens, then the “northern failure” will happen again. Russian battalions will be stuck, running out of food, fuel and ammunition. At some point, the Ukrainian army will start tearing them to pieces until the Kremlin declares “victory” and orders a retreat.
To succeed in the battle for Donbas, Russia needs a lot of combat groups, much more than it had even at the beginning of the war. We need forces that can not only break through, but also stay in the right positions. And these forces do not exist. The situation is aggravated by the fact that BTG on the front line and their support brigades lost thousands of their fighters in the first 50 days of the war.
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In addition, geography is also a problem for Russia. As Ukraine's army is defending itself, it has the advantage of the internal line. In other words, the battles are fought along an arc-shaped line. Russian forces are advancing from the outside of this arc. This means that their supply chains are longer than those of the internal forces – that is, the Ukrainian army. And if there are problems, the defender can retreat a few kilometers, further stretching the lines of supply of the enemy, thereby creating problems for him.
Therefore, the aggressor needs a significant numerical and technical advantage. And Russia can not boast of that. In the Donbass it has about the same number of troops as in Ukraine. In addition, according to US officials, Kyiv now has more tanks than the Russian army. And Russian logistics is no better than it was a month ago.
Russia has started the war with an army that is too small and poorly supplied. Hoping for a quick collapse of Ukraine, which, of course, did not happen, Moscow doomed its campaign against the neighboring country to failure from day one.
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