The military expert is convinced that the Ukrainian army will be able to counterattack and push the Russian troops to the positions by February 24.
Russian aggression against Ukraine has reached a dead end. The Ukrainian army can now conduct an effective counteroffensive. And it is possible that Russia will be defeated . However, what will be the consequences for Moscow?
This was reported by the German newspaper Focus, recalling that the Kremlin hoped for a quick victory in the war against Ukraine. However, the fighting has been going on for more than two months. And the Russian army has not yet made any significant progress. Even focusing on the eastern Ukrainian regions, Russian troops did not make a significant breakthrough. Former General of the Australian Armed Forces and military expert Mick Ryan believes that the chances of the Armed Forces to conduct a successful counterattack are increasing. Especially after effective military resistance and significant assistance from the West.
According to him, if the Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeds, the Armed Forces can regain control of the occupied territories and displace Russian units to where they were before the invasion on February 24. However, Ryan does not rule out that they will also be able to liberate those parts of Donbass that Moscow occupied in 2014.
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Ukraine's success in the east and south may, on the one hand, force Russia to agree to a ceasefire and withdrawal. Such a military defeat will reduce the influence of Russia and Vladimir Putin to a minimum. However, to avoid such a “nightmare scenario”, the Russian military may use chemical, biological or nuclear weapons during the retreat. By killing Ukrainian soldiers and ceasing to fire, Russian troops could reduce their losses before being pushed out of position. According to Ryan, Putin's defeat is inevitable in any case.
“The use of weapons of mass destruction, unless Russian generals remove Putin sooner, will make Russia an exile for many years, if not decades.” – the former military man is convinced.
It will take many years to make up for Russia's losses in Ukraine. And we are talking about physical losses, as well as moral and reputational. Focus writes that Russia's defeat will also push China into the abyss. The countries have maintained a strategic partnership for many years, sharing worldviews and desires. However, Putin's meetings with Xi Jinping will be a thing of the past after losing the war. In fact, Russia will become a client country of China.
In addition, Russia's failure will undermine all of Xi Jinping's attempts to persuade other countries to abandon Western-style democracy in favor of the Chinese model of government. The reputation of the Chinese leader may also suffer. It turns out that he bet on Putin, who lost the war. At the same time, Ryan warns that too weakened Russia could become even more dangerous. After all, it has a large nuclear arsenal.
Earlier, American economist Francis Fukuyama explained why Ukraine will win the war and what's next. According to him, the Armed Forces will defeat the Russian army thanks to weapons supplied by the West, as well as greater motivation of soldiers. In addition, the Russian army has shown that it is unable to learn even from its own mistakes.
See the special topic: > The occupiers make it impossible to deliver humanitarian goods to the region. “Cossacks” and unemployed agitate: covert mobilization continues in Russia – GUR of the Ministry of Defense However, agitation measures face significant distrust on the part of potential “mobilized”. Russians break into Azovstal – media There is no connection with Ukrainian defenders. Holiday season in Odesa region under threat of disruption – Bratchuk Odesa OVA warns of mine danger on beaches. Zelensky assessed the likelihood of the transition of the war with Russia into a frozen conflict He compared the Minsk agreements with the “diplomatic swamp”, noting that this would no longer be the case.
