If the Russian autocrat realizes that his army is incapable of fighting further, he can annex the occupied territories and spread the Russian nuclear doctrine to them.
In the war against Ukraine in Russia options for further action are coming to an end. At this stage, Vladimir Putin's plan seems to be to gain control of the territories his army has already seized.
For the Russian autocrat, annexation is the last resort of this war. But he will most likely not use this option yet, the German newspaper Focus writes. Ukrainian authorities have recently begun talking about the beginning of the third stage of Russian aggression. In the first stage, the Russian army tried to quickly capture all of Ukraine “in a few days.” However, after the failure of this plan, she moved on to the second stage, during which she tried to surround and defeat the main forces of the Armed Forces in Donbass. But even in this Russian forces failed.
In the new third stage, the Russian army is going to defend itself in the territories it managed to capture earlier. Therefore, Kyiv believes that this indicates Moscow's intention to wage a long war. Apparently, the Russian government thinks that prolonging the war will force the West to sit down at the negotiating table on Russian terms and Ukraine to surrender.
The publication notes that at this stage it is not clear what the significance and purpose of such Putin's tactics are. Even if Russia can force everyone to return to the talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently made it clear that he will not agree to peace if it means new borders.
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“If we return everything we deserve, we will end the war,” he said on Wednesday.
But this result does not suit Putin. The end of the war without territorial conquests will mean its complete bankruptcy inside Russia. Therefore, according to analysts at the Institute for War Studies (ISW), the Russian autocrat has only one way out – annexation. Military experts believe that Putin will try to integrate the occupied Ukrainian territories in the east and south directly into Russia in the coming months. This applies to parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts in the south, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the east, which are controlled by the Russian army. Moscow may also try to annex its separatist enclaves in other countries: the so-called Transnistrian region in Moldova and South Ossetia in Georgia.
There will be no imitation of holding “referendums”, as in Crimea in 2014. The reason is simple: why arrange something like this, if still no one recognizes such falsified “votes”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said that the annexation of Kherson “must have a clear legal justification and legitimacy, as was the case with Crimea.” ISW experts believe that after the annexation, Russia will launch mass persecution and repression to subdue the population and take control of the territory. Access to information will be replaced by Russian propaganda. Internet connection will be provided only through the Russian network. The economic life of the occupied territories will be translated into rubles. In addition, people will be abducted and executed, and Ukrainian officials will be replaced by Russian collaborators. Guerrillas and activists who will resist the occupation will try to eliminate. All this is already part of the Kremlin's well-established scheme for the occupation and control of the territories.
In this process, according to experts, Putin will directly or indirectly declare that Russia's nuclear doctrine applies to the annexed territories as well. This means that Russia's attempt to liberate the annexed Ukrainian regions will be seen as an attack on its territory. Consequently, the Kremlin will believe that it has a legitimate right to use nuclear weapons. ISW believes that the implementation of annexation plans will depend on how Putin assesses his own military strength.
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The declared goal to take control of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions has not yet been achieved. Experts doubt that the exhausted Russian troops are able to perform this task at all. If Putin draws the same conclusions, it is possible that he will quickly move on to the annexation process to threaten the Ukrainian Armed Forces with nuclear weapons if they counterattack in the annexed territories.
However, the Russian autocrat may also believe that his army is still capable of capturing more territory. In this case, he will not rush to join the occupied Ukrainian regions to Russia. Instead, Putin may try to mobilize more troops to increase his army. However, at the moment the risks for Russia are high. If Putin procrastinates with the annexation without properly assessing the situation, he will lose the occupied territories. Ukraine has the opportunity to liberate these regions. Ukrainian counterattacks could push back the Russian army, thwarting all Kremlin plans for annexation. In this case, Russia's “success” in this war will become less and less.
See the special topic: The war in Ukraine is not as expected by Russia – Stoltenberg NATO Secretary General notes that the occupiers are retreating from Kharkiv. Germany is not in contact with Russia now – Foreign Ministry The last platform for dialogue between Berlin and Moscow was the OSCE format, Burbock said. War with Russia: how Ukraine searches for missing persons during the war People are searched for and found, although it is difficult < In Kherson, Russian aggressors torture civilians taken hostage Residents of the city, who were captured by the occupiers, talk about the abuse and violence used by the invaders during interrogations. Grozev called the condition under which Putin will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine Non-compliance will be the beginning of Putin's end.
