Experts remind that Putin's words and actions often differ greatly, so his empty speech on May 9 means nothing at all.
On May 9, the world closely followed Vladimir Putin's speech on Red Square. But he said nothing unexpected. The Russian autocrat did not declare a general mobilization, nor did he declare open war against Ukraine. Now all the capitals are wondering what will happen next.
Focus notes that Putin has even softened his rhetoric. He spoke of the historic mission to prevent a new global war, although he continued to justify his aggression against Ukraine, presenting it as a “forced defense” against the “unacceptable threat.” But the Russian autocrat never revealed his cards.
According to Schonke Nietzsche, a military historian at the University of Potsdam, Putin said “what he had to say.” But in general, his rhetoric does not matter at all.
“Putin is doing what is not expected of him. There has always been a big difference between what he says and what he does. Military action has more weight, “the historian explained, adding that declaring mobilization in Russia is still possible.
Retired Bundeswehr General Harald Guyat also says he did not even expect any major statements from Putin. He believes that “Putin stubbornly continues to follow his course.” His troops stretched from Donbass to Kherson and Crimea. And keeping these territories is no easy task. Because despite all the parades and demonstrations of strength, the Russian army has only proved how weak it is. It is too disorganized, demoralized and demotivated to win the war with Ukraine.
Professor Thomas Eger, a foreign policy expert at the University of Cologne, does not believe in large-scale mobilization in Russia. They would rather weaken the army than strengthen it due to lack of motivation and combat experience. The figures on paper are very different from the reality of Russia's capabilities, “Eger explained.
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Nominally, Russia has an army of one million. But about 200,000 of its soldiers are already at war with Ukraine. And the rest are not suitable at all and are not even intended for battles. They are engaged in administration, maintenance and logistics. The situation is similar with armaments. As in the Bundeswehr, only a small fraction of Russian tanks, aircraft and ships are truly combat-ready. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces is mired in corruption, which makes much of the equipment unusable.
“Now about 10% of Russian soldiers are killed and even more wounded. Therefore, the Russian authorities have reason to believe that the general mood among the population is very bad, “said Eger.
In his opinion, the mobilization of reservists and conscripts in the current circumstances will be very difficult. At the same time, he is convinced that the Russian army will not leave Ukraine. It will continue to rely on its firepower. So, according to the German expert, it will be a long war of “exhaustion”.
On the other hand, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence Kirill Budanov believes that Russia was going to announce the mobilization on May 9. But Putin did not. Does this mean that he is afraid of the mood of his own people? Will he still send conscripts and reservists to the front? Putin cannot be trusted. We should not be tied to specific dates, waiting to see if mobilization will or will not take place in Russia. Prior to the Russian invasion, Western intelligence services also called very specific dates. However, Russian aggression began two days later than everyone expected.
