Experts suggest further easing of NBU restrictions.
The NBU reacted to the sharp rise in the dollar's cash exchange rate the so-called “card tourism” removed a number of restrictions and thus allowed banks to actually return to the foreign exchange market. RBC writes about this with reference to experts.
As of May 21, the NBU lifted restrictions on banks for the sale of cash currency and write it off from accounts when paying with hryvnia cards abroad. That is, the NBU gave banks the opportunity to compete with “exchanges”. The NBU also limited the amount of cash withdrawals abroad from 100,000 to 50,000 hryvnias per month.
“This (removal of restrictions – ed.) Is gradually leveling the exchange rates of banks and the” gray market “for cash transactions, with significant potential to bring down the hype of the latter,” – said Alfa-Bank Ukraine analyst Alexei Blinov.
We can say that the market reacted calmly to the lifting of restrictions.
On the second day of the new rules, financial analyst Vitaliy Shapran even noticed a decline in the exchange rate: 36.6 and continues to decline, “he wrote on Facebook.
The card sales rate was raised by 9 banks out of 35 that came under expert monitoring. But the growth, he said, was insignificant – a couple of dozen kopecks. “Only one bank sold currency at 38 and 2 banks at 36. Consensus on the card sales rate of 32.5 hryvnias/dollar,” Shapran said.
According to former Finance Minister Igor Umansky, now the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance must find a balance in actions to prevent panic, entering the borrowing markets and the foreign exchange market agreed.
He believes that restrictions will be eased and soon possible will cancel and fixed rate. The sooner they abolish them (restrictions – ed.), The less the burden on the budget, the less there will be losses. . And I think it will be done soon, “Umansky said.
At the same time, according to the ex-minister, sharp jumps in the exchange rate due to the high demand for currency should not be expected, as the population does not have extra funds to invest in cash dollar or euro.
not enough to count on stabilizing the exchange rate within limits that will not allow inflation to fluctuate. Exports from Ukraine have almost stopped due to blocked ports, and the receipt of loans and grants from Western partners still wants better.
So far, reserves are declining. In April, the NBU sold $ 2 billion, which reduced gold and foreign exchange reserves to $ 26.9 billion. By February 1, the reserves were 29.3 billion, at the end of last year – almost 31 billion dollars.
Read also: Strengthening the ruble: Russia has demanded that the Central Bank “calm down” the exchange rate
< Earlier DT.UA wrote why the inflow of money from the West does not hold back the rate, and this week will be decisive. The exchange rate reacted negatively to currency schemes.
