The Russian economist pointed out a big difference between the economic situation in the Russian Federation now and the one that arose after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In 2014, Russians massively supported the annexation of Ukrainian Kirma . Then there was a patriotic mobilization of the population. And the sanctions introduced by the West did not stop business activity in the Russian Federation. But today, when Russia is waging war against Ukraine, the situation is completely different.
Russian economist Andrey Yakovlev said this in an interview with Der Spiegel. Referring to personal conversations with representatives of Russian business, he assures that everyone in the country knows well “who is to blame for all the problems.” However, according to Yakovlev, entrepreneurs in Russia have no influence on the country's political course. And “all the business can do is try to somehow survive.” Of course, these efforts benefit the Russian economy. But, according to Yakovlev, it should also be understood that this is in no way related to supporting the behavior of Vladimir Putin.
“Everybody is well aware that this time the broken supply chains will not be restored in a few months. And this understanding did not come quickly. Back in March, many thought that Western companies would return, because no one wants to lose profitable business. And then came the realization that the sanctions this time are much more massive and wider than in 2014. Companies are only now slowly beginning to understand that there is no way to normality,” the economist said.
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He also pointed out that sociological polls in Russia say that Putin is allegedly supported by 80% of the population. But Yakovlev noted that his personal conversations indicate otherwise. The regime has become much more repressive since 2014. People are not sure that their answers in surveys will really remain anonymous. The risk is very high. You can go to prison for many years for anti-war comments on social networks. Yakovlev assures that the results of polls in Russia are greatly exaggerated.
“Of course, there are those who support the war against Ukraine, who were successfully influenced by the Kremlin's propaganda. But I don't think that there are more than 25-30% of them. This group is no bigger than a group of opponents of war. If the economic situation worsens, these people will react,” the Russian economist is confident.
He admitted that this reaction is difficult to predict. But he recalled that in 2018 there were large-scale protests in Russia against raising the retirement age. In the regions, rallies are often held against landfills, the construction of churches, or actions that harm the environment. Sometimes they are so large-scale that the regional authorities have to respond to the demands of the participants of such actions.
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“In 2014, among the Russian elites there were those who lost due to annexation. These were business circles that lost significant resources and influence. But there were also clear winners of the situation. Today in Russia there is no one who would win. And this will lead to tension among the elites. But while Putin is at the top, there is no point in waiting for change. He destroyed all possibilities of retreat for himself. And he also tried to put a significant part of political circles in the same position,” Yakovlev said.
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For example, Putin forced members of the Russian National Security Council to speak publicly about supporting his militant course. And, according to the economist, many are “not comfortable” saying all these things. At the same time, only a small group of people from Putin's entourage make decisions today. And this creates serious tension in the power circles. According to Yakovlev, the longer the war against Ukraine and the decline of the Russian economy continue, the stronger this tension will be.
