Experts believe that the Russian army will not have enough forces for a few more months to achieve at least some success in eastern Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to lead war against Ukraine. And Russian generals are preparing a new phase of the offensive, hoping to capture much of Donbass, which is still under Ukrainian control.
Kyiv seems to be serious about this threat. In Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, local officials are urging people to evacuate. They are also organizing humanitarian corridors for civilians so that they can move to safer parts of Ukraine.
But is Russia capable of launching a terrible new offensive in the east? This was reported by CNN. Maxar Technologies has shown new satellite images showing a 12-kilometer Russian convoy moving towards the town of Veliky Burluk east of Kharkiv. On Saturday, Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Vadym Denysenko said that Kharkiv was being shelled “around the clock.” And the region is expecting a Russian offensive from the city of Izyum.
Read also: Russia's offensive in Donbass may begin soon – Defense Ministry
Military experts and Western officials also said that Putin's generals seek to win at least some victory until May 9, when Russia will celebrate Victory Day in World War II. But a recent analysis by the Institute for War Studies (ISW) calls into question Russia's ability to concentrate on Donbass the forces needed for a breakthrough.
“We believe that it will be difficult for the Russian army to gather a large and capable force from mechanized units for the operation in Donbass over the next few months. Russia is likely to continue to launch heavily damaged and partially regrouped forces into the offensive, which will provide limited benefits at a very high price, ”the institute's experts say.
Military analysts and observers say it will be difficult for Russia to reorganize forces that have been defeated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly on the outskirts of Kyiv and in northern Ukraine. Prior to the full-scale war, Russia had 120 battalion tactical groups at Ukraine's borders. An unnamed European official told CNN that about a quarter of those forces had become “virtually incapable” after heavy losses and the destruction of their equipment. On April 8, a U.S. defense official gave a slightly different assessment. According to him, the Russian army retained “less than 85% of the initial fighting force” before the invasion on February 24. The ISW considers such estimates by the United States to be an “exaggeration of Russia's current military capabilities.” Russian units that have already fought in Ukraine have suffered heavy losses, “the ISW said in a statement.
Read also: Russia will not be able to capture Donbas completely – OP
The appointment of a new commander to manage Russia's war against Ukraine seems to be an attempt to solve a coordination problem that has already undermined the capabilities of the Russian army.
“The Russians are apparently trying to solve one of the problems they faced at the beginning of the invasion by appointing the commander of the Southern Military District, General Alexander Dvornikov, as commander of operations in Ukraine. But this simplification of Russia's command structure will not solve all management problems. Russia's forces are likely to continue to suffer from a lack of coherent and effective command and control mechanisms in the near future, the institute's experts say. However, this does not mean that the coming weeks will be easy for the forces. Ukraine, which is defended in the east. ISW expects that the Russian army “can still achieve some success and take control of large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”
“But it is equally likely that the culmination of the Russian offensive will come before the goals are achieved , as has already happened with similar Russian operations, “ISW experts explained.
It will be recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Commander of the Southern Military District of Russia General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov Commander of the Troops in Ukraine.
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Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia's military operations in Syria after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government.
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