But experts say the mass extermination of Ukrainians will not help the Kremlin defeat Ukraine in the war. Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive in Donbass. But if the Russian army fails here as well, Vladimir Putin may dare to use weapons of mass destruction, ie chemical or tactical nuclear weapons.
This opinion was expressed by Neil Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, in an interview with CNBC. The US strategy seems to be to “bleed” Russia during the war, which could potentially lead to regime change in Moscow. However, Ferguson believes that this is a “very dangerous” strategy. Last week, the Russian army retreated from Kyiv, after which Moscow began preparing for the battle for Donbas. This is where the two eastern Ukrainian regions, which Moscow has held under partial occupation since 2014, when it annexed Crimea, are located.
If it becomes clear in the coming weeks that Russian troops have weakened too much to win a clear victory in the Donbas, Ferguson said Putin could find himself in a predicament with no apparent way out. The expert stressed that the Russian autocrat has already demonstrated his readiness to carry out “terrible destruction” by conventional means, such as cruise missiles. Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. US nuclear weapons stockpiles are in second place. Ferguson admits that Moscow can use its arsenal in case of defeat in Donbass.
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For his part, Phillips O'Brien of the University of St. Andrews said the scenario was “unlikely or unrealistic.” The use of weapons of mass destruction will lead to even greater support for Ukraine in the world. Arms supplies will be significantly increased and sanctions against Russia will be strengthened. In addition, according to O'Brien, it is not clear how such weapons will help Russia achieve its political goals.
“They can kill many people in some cities. But how will this help win the war? ” he said.
According to O'Brien, there is a “high probability” that Moscow will not be able to capture and hold the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. In turn, Ferguson noted that Putin's goal is not necessarily the annexation of Ukraine. He wants it to be a “stable, Western-oriented democracy.”
If Putin dares to use weapons of mass destruction, the United States and Europe, which still rule out a direct military confrontation with Russia, will face a “big dilemma.” They will have a choice of two “very terrible” options.
The first is to do nothing and continue to supply conventional weapons after the use of nuclear arsenals. The second is to go to war and risk escalation, “Ferguson said.
This is the fundamental problem of the current strategy. If we continue to say that the West will not take military action, it will only encourage the other side to escalate on the basis of the belief that the West will always retreat, “the expert explained.
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On Thursday, G7 foreign ministers spoke out against “any threat or use” of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. In a joint statement, they promised Russia “grave consequences” if it dares. Given that nuclear powers are on the brink of conflict, and Russia says it is waging war against the West, Ferguson said the current situation is “much more dangerous” than everyone thinks.
“That is why, although we are not on the verge of World War III now, we cannot completely reject such a scenario,” the expert said.
Russia is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine . In particular, Russian propaganda is actively spreading the thesis that “the first stage of the special operation has shown results.” And the so-called “withdrawal of troops” in the Chernihiv and Kyiv directions is actually a redeployment.
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