Meanwhile, Putin's security services have begun to feud with each other, accusing each other and even Putin of military failures.
Russian Army very dissatisfied with Vladimir Putin's new abbreviated strategy concerning Ukraine, according to which the goal of capturing Kyiv is no longer on the agenda. Instead, the Russian military has been ordered to focus on occupying the entire Donbass.
And the Russian Armed Forces accuses other security forces, including the FSB's foreign intelligence unit, of misinforming the president about the real situation in Ukraine, leading to failure. Other FSB departments seem to share the army's analysis. Researchers from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov write about this in their article.
They note that the war in Ukraine has severely split Russian society. The authors expected that their sources in the Russian Armed Forces and special services would remain silent after the February 24 invasion. After all, it is one thing to complain about corruption in one of Russia's departments, and quite another to talk about war. The authors admit that in the first month of the war, indeed, all sources have subsided. Some of them refused to answer calls and messages. But now the situation has changed dramatically. Last week, Borogan and Soldiers began receiving more and more calls and data from their informants in the Russian military. The FSB has begun commenting on the imprisonment of Sergei Beseda, the head of the Fifth Service, who collected political intelligence in Ukraine and was the curator of Kremlin-loyal politicians in Kyiv. The FSB general was sent to the infamous Lefortovo prison in Moscow, which has earned a bad reputation since the Stalinist purges. Many victims were killed in the basement of this prison.
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The Kremlin has worked hard to conceal details of Beseda's arrest. The name of the general in the prison records was even changed. This was confirmed by sources in the Russian army and in the FSB's economic security department. The video of Beseda's plight has garnered millions of views on YouTube and has been widely discussed on Kremlin-loyal Telegram channels. There are rumors that the compromising material on the Conversation was collected by agents of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
“Does all this mean that the army or the FSB have come to the conclusion that the war with its incredible losses and incompetent command was a mistake? The short answer is no, quite the opposite, “the authors write.
The Russian military is convinced that reducing the initial target for the capture of Donbass is a serious mistake. They now claim that Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO. Senior officers concluded that the alliance had already moved on to a full-scale battle (due to the supply of more advanced weapons to the Armed Forces), while Russian troops “have to act with restrictions on peacetime.” They say they are forbidden to launch air strikes on some key elements of Ukraine's infrastructure. In short, the Russian Armed Forces are demanding a full-scale war, which will include large-scale mobilization.
The frustration of the military became so great that it began to seep into public space. A well-known Russian veteran of the Russian National Guard, Alexander Arutyunov, recorded a video address to Putin: “Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, please decide whether we are fighting or masturbating?” He demanded a massive escalation with strikes on Ukraine's entire infrastructure or an end to the war. The video went viral, especially among military groups in the UK and Telegram channels linked to the Russian Armed Forces.
On April 12, a Telegram called FighterBomber, linked to the Russian Air Force, published a comment on NATO arms supplies Army of Ukraine.
“Of course, we will strengthen our air defense forces on the border with Ukraine to close our territories from ballistic missiles. But it is also clear that NATO countries have far more weapons than Russia, “the statement said.
The author is optimistic that Russia's air force will be able to stop the flow of Western weapons. However, he also added that Ukraine's further victories “will almost certainly lead to the use of nuclear weapons.” Then, on April 22, Russian Army General Rustam Minnekayev announced the second phase of a “special operation” aimed at establishing “complete control over Donbass and southern Ukraine.”
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It will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as the impact on vital objects of the Ukrainian economy. Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where the facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population were also recorded, “he said.
It was weird. Minnekayev – Deputy Commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation. His words were heard at the annual meeting of the “Union of Defense Industry”. The most likely explanation for his comments is that he recently attended a General Staff meeting and was so excited by what he heard there that he did not hesitate to announce the news publicly. In any case, this shows that the Russian army wants more war, not less.
The authors note that in all public and private discussions of the military there is absolutely no criticism of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Somehow he managed to maintain respect for the army and direct all his anger at someone else. In private conversations, the military and even intelligence agencies have accused not only the Fifth Division of the FSB of misinforming the president, but also Putin himself of what he did wrong when he changed his strategy. In 2014, when Russian forces quickly occupied Crimea, Russia's intelligence services and army were on the same page as Putin. They fully supported his decision to annex the peninsula. In 2022, the situation is completely different. Does it matter? So! For the first time, the security forces began to distance themselves from Putin. And this creates a very wide range of opportunities.
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