Experts say the Russian military continues to use the same tactics that have failed in northern Ukraine.
After a failed attempt to capture Kyiv, Russia on Tuesday moved to a new phase of the war, focusing on Donbass. There, the landscape is more familiar to the exhausted Russian army.
In this part of Ukraine, Russian troops will have certain advantages. But that doesn't necessarily mean they will have an advantage over the Armed Forces at this new stage of the battle, Business Insider quoted former U.S. Army tanker and CIA analyst Jeffrey Edmonds as saying.
Among the benefits that Moscow will receive in the Ukrainian east is the best logistics provided through the protected territory occupied 8 years ago. Thanks to this, fuel and ammunition can be transported to the front without the risk of being ambushed in Ukraine. Edmonds also points out that Russia's army will be able to focus on a smaller geographical area. Russian forces can also use their aircraft and fire from controlled territories.
Read also: The war in Ukraine may last until the end of 2023 – Johnson
The American expert also points to the appointment of General Alexander Dvornikov as commander of the entire invasion of Ukraine. This will create a more direct structure of command and control. Also, the open area in the Donbass creates a more acceptable environment for the Russian army. In the north, Ukrainian soldiers hid behind trees and bushes to ambush Russian tanks. Russia will have the best chances to use its armored vehicles and artillery in Donbass.
However, the problems of the Russian army, from which it suffered in the first phase of the war, namely, poor command, ill-considered tactics and poor training of troops – will continue to undermine Moscow's efforts to capture more territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine has strengthened its position, its security is getting better, and the United States has started sending armored vehicles to its army.
has already bled to death, “Edmonds said.
Unlike Ukraine, Russia does not receive aid and new equipment from other countries. It is only using up its vast but old supplies, says retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Kanchian.
“They lost as much in this war as they did in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan. That is why Russia, by today's standards, has suffered heavy losses that it cannot replace, “the former serviceman said.
In 6 weeks of war, the Russian army lost up to 40,000 soldiers, according to NATO estimates. This figure includes all those who have been captured, wounded or killed. According to other estimates, between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed during the invasion. In addition, morale in the Russian army is low and it cannot deal with major logistical problems. Many Russian battalions have been so defeated in the north that they will not be able to return to the battlefield in Ukraine any time soon, Western officials say on condition of anonymity. The Kremlin does not know how to finish it – the media
An unnamed Pentagon official told the Wall Street Journal that some units of the Russian army had in fact been completely destroyed. So, according to him, for the next phase of the war, Russia is trying to mobilize an additional 60,000 soldiers. Mason Clark, chief analyst at Russia at the Institute for War Studies (ISW), said the Russian military continues to carry out small but daily attacks in eastern Ukraine, while trying to prepare for a wider offensive.
“Russia continues to send these small units into limited attacks, which probably can't accomplish anything. Especially since many units are now extremely exhausted by fighting in northern Ukraine. The Russians are trying to do the same thing they did in the north. That is, there are small separate lines of advance of companies and battalions, which in fact can not be called a large-scale offensive. And they have not been able to break through the Ukrainian defense in the past. Therefore, I am quite optimistic that the Armed Forces will be able to contain them to a large extent, “Clark said.
Edmonds, in turn, acknowledged that before the new invasion, he did not believe in Ukraine's ability to stand up to Russia. But now he believes more in Ukraine's capabilities.
“The Russians have shown that they are quite incompetent, and the Ukrainians – on the contrary, have proved that they are quite strong,” – said the former military.
Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Russia has almost completed preparations for an offensive operation in eastern Ukraine and may begin active hostilities in the near future .
British intelligence confirmed that escalation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is possible within two or three weeks.
See the special topic: The occupiers write on the shells “Christ is Risen!” and preparing to fire on civilians on Easter – SBU Russian invaders are preparing another provocation. In the Luhansk region, the Armed Forces shot down a drone “Orlan” The drone was shot down from small arms. Air strikes in the Azovstal area resumed – OP But our troops continue to carry out counter-attacks. The occupiers deported children from Mariupol to Vladivostok, Russia – Mayor According to Petro Andryushchenko, on April 21 alone, the enemy deported 308 citizens from Ukraine, including nearly a hundred children. . Russian troops forcibly deport men from Mariupol for mobilization in the “DPR army” Mostly deport young men under 40 years of age.
