The Ukrainian army will become the strongest in Europe, NATO will expand, and Moscow will be isolated for many years, even if sanctions are lifted.
The war in Ukraine continues. Now the fighting is focused on Donbass . There is less talk about this region than when the clashes continued on the outskirts of Kyiv. This may be due to the fact that the war is now more kinetic and open and very different from the spectacular ambushes in the first weeks.
It seems that there will be more large-scale clashes of large formations ahead. But while Russia is trying to achieve its limited goals in the east, it has already lost so much in this war that it is a disaster for Russia's national force. Of course, experts now believe that Ukraine can win this war. But even if Russia is able to hold pieces of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, the losses of this war far outweigh those gains.
Robert Kelly, a professor of international relations at the National University of Busan, writes about this in the pages of Business Insider. He lists a number of results of Russia's unintentional invasion of Ukraine that were not exactly part of the Kremlin's plans.
The Armed Forces will soon become the best army in Europe
And this is the most ironic result of the Russian invasion. Vladimir Putin was hoping for a blitzkrieg. He thought that his army would enter Ukrainian territory, replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with a pro-Russian puppet, and return home. Everything had to happen faster than the West would have gathered strength. Putin seems to have believed his own propaganda, which said that Ukraine was a “fake country.” Instead, he faced a wall of patriotic Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. They were able to withstand the defense long enough for the West to support them.
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“Russia is now dealing with a well-armed, well-trained, battle-tested army with good command, deep legitimacy and the support of wealthy foreign supporters. Russia will never be able to subjugate Ukraine. If the Russian army does not win in the next few months, it will lose the whole war, “he said.” NATO will expand. ” Of course, this is not true. But Russian propaganda repeats this argument. So this is another great ironic result of this war. It is possible that Ukraine will abandon its intention to become a member of NATO in the framework of a peace agreement. But Sweden and Finland will definitely become allies of the alliance.
Finland's accession to NATO This is a special defeat for Russia. The northern European country has a very long border line with Russia. Throughout the Cold War, Finland remained neutral. And that says a lot about Putin becoming too dangerous, even more dangerous than the Soviet Union, if Helsinki decides to relinquish its long-standing neutral status.
Russia will be very isolated
Any peace agreement will formally restore Russia's relations with the world. Sanctions will ease. Russian elites will be able to cross the border again. The interwar period in the 20th century and the history of Germany's transition to Nazi rule teach that punishing a losing party too much can make it even worse. But even if formal restrictions are removed, normal diplomatic and economic cooperation with Russia will certainly not take place until Putin loses power. Western companies will not be allowed to return to Russia. Everyone who has left the Russian market: Apple, Netflix, Honda and so on – will not return quickly. And lifting the sanctions will not force them to do so. Similarly, the lifting of the travel ban does not mean that world leaders are obliged to meet with representatives of Russia's elites. There are more and more stories about Russian war crimes. As a result, Russia will be informally isolated for many years to come.
NATO's new appointment
After the end of the Cold War, the alliance was an organization that sought a new destination for decades. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States, it began experimenting with operations “outside its range”, particularly in Afghanistan. But NATO's role was not popular. Many rejoiced when the alliance finally left Afghanistan last year. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of NATO's “dead brain”. Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted at the desire to withdraw the United States from the alliance.
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Russia's aggression against Ukraine has ended these talks. Most likely, the United States will now deploy its bases in Eastern Europe. Germany began to increase its military strength. After Brexit, the UK is once again working with its European neighbors. Critics of America loyal to Putin, such as Tucker Carlson or Glenn Greenwald, have lost the attention of the American public, which supports Ukraine in the war.
All these losses and consequences far outweigh anything that Putin can gain in Donbass. Ukraine will survive and be able to withstand military pressure from Russia. NATO will get bigger and stronger. Russia will find itself in inconvenient isolation and complete dependence on China. This is a rather bitter result for the operation, which was supposed to be a “small blitzkrieg”.
See the special topic: Russian helicopter violated Finnish airspace Local the border service has already launched an investigation into the incident. Steinmeier wants to talk to Zelensky in person The German leader expressed support for Ukraine and asked to talk to the President of Ukraine “if possible.” Zelensky has appointed ambassadors to nine countries The president has also signed a series of decrees awarding the military. The occupiers fired on the center of the Dnieper Residents are asked not to leave the shelters. The mayor of Konotop, Sumy region, banned the activities of the UOC-MP in the city due to the threat to Ukraine's national security.
