Demonstrating support for Kyiv from the democratic world will be worthless if the West does not step up its assistance in the next few weeks.
The first stage of the war against Ukraine went wrong, as planned by Vladimir Putin. But the next four weeks may determine how the map of Europe will change as a result of the Russian invasion. The gradual tightening of sanctions over the past few days will do little to change the battlefield. . This was reported by Bloomberg.
Military analysts and officials in the United States and other NATO countries warn that Russia's military operations will intensify in the next 7-10 days. Regrouped Russian forces will be sent to Donbas and will try to break the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol, and then launch an offensive from both the north and the south. Despite the fact that the Russian army has fought very poorly so far, it now faces more realistic challenges. Instead of attacking from three fronts at once, Russia now wants to focus on one front, where supply chains are less vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. Russia has also taken into account the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, which it previously greatly underestimated.
Prior to the Russian invasion, the 40,000-strong OOS force in the east was the best-armed and best-trained unit of the Ukrainian army. These troops remain steadfast, but the last five weeks of fierce fighting have taken their toll. They are also harder to provide. In addition, they do not have the same powerful air defense as in Kyiv. It is possible that Putin sees May 9 as the deadline for capturing eastern Ukraine. In the minds of the Russian autocrat, this will be the first step towards the “restoration” of the Russian empire and sphere of influence. If the Russian army succeeds, it will then try to close this part of the country.
Read also: The battle for Donbas will be reminiscent of World War II – Kuleb
However, according to Jack Watling, an expert on ground methods of warfare at the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies, Moscow does not have the strength to go beyond the environmental zone. Putin has already thrown all the fighting forces into the war. And reserves are very limited. Units that are not yet at war with Ukraine are auxiliary troops, fresh conscripts or groups conducting operations in other countries, and because of this the Kremlin cannot transfer them.
If the Russian army loses its offensive momentum and will suppressed by anti-tank weapons and artillery, according to Watling, in about four weeks its forces evaporate. Then Putin will have to decide whether he is ready to start an even bigger war by starting the full mobilization of the country. In this case, calling it a “special operation” will no longer work.
The fact that Russia has withdrawn its troops from Kyiv and no longer opposes Ukraine's accession to the EU indicates that Moscow has already begun to rethink its aspirations.
“Zelensky is now in a much stronger position than anyone in the West will ever be. NATO has never been as strong as it is now. Germany has completely changed its defense policy and abandoned the approaches it has supported for the past 40 years. Russia is about to lose the two main energy export routes that were its main source of income. Although it may take some time. The Nord Stream-2 project has collapsed. The Russians have lost control of their foreign exchange reserves, “said Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a former defense minister and former British foreign minister, with optimism.
However, winning at the beginning is not the same as winning at the end. If Ukraine is dismembered, it will radically change the security landscape in Europe. And while some will urge Kyiv to reach an agreement as soon as possible, any ceasefire or agreement that will leave Ukraine vulnerable to a new attack will undermine real reconstruction efforts. After all, investing will be impossible.
A new phase of impending battles requires new weapons, – explains Keir Giles of Chatham House, who has written two books on Russia's foreign policy in recent years.
Read also: Russians want to use a “boiler” plan against our military in the Donbass – Arestovich
“The weapons that Ukraine needs to continue the struggle are not exactly defensive weapons that should help the country not lose the war. We also need tools to strike at the enemy, including the ability to fire on Russian-controlled territories, “said the expert.
According to him, the United States has so far been engaged in “crisis management” and has not focused on Ukraine's needs during the crisis phase of the war. The UK and other NATO countries can do a lot. The Ukrainian list of desired anti-tank guided missiles, portable air defense systems, ammunition, drones, radars, surface-to-air missiles, as well as kamikaze drones, which are passively waiting to strike at the right moment. The Czech Republic sent T-72 tanks to Ukraine. They will be useful. But Prague can also supply spare parts.
Ukraine will also need supplies to provide reservists and recruits who will be sent to the front on a rotating basis. NATO countries must facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian army to defense systems, including air defense, which can be better supported (meanwhile, the Allies are concerned only with their own security). There is also an urgent need for humanitarian support and economic assistance to prevent the collapse of the Ukrainian economy. Sanctioning oligarchs and freezing their yachts was a “show” compared to what needs to be done now to preserve Europe's security landscape.
The next phase of the war will be a test not only for Ukrainian forces but also for the unity of the democratic the world, its sense of purpose and ability to think clearly about the future.
See special topic: Britain wants to lead the process of issuing arrest warrants for Putin and to recognize the Russian president and the Russian army as terrorists. The Economist: Russia's war criminals may never be punished But a thorough investigation into their crimes in Bucha, Irpen and other Ukrainian cities is still needed. The COVID certificate will be displayed in “Actions” for 1.5 years from the date of vaccination This will simplify the vaccination confirmation procedure for Ukrainians who have gone abroad. GUR: mobilization continues in Russia – even those who fought in Syria do not want to fight against the Armed Forces In Yekaterinburg, for example, only to talk about the possibility less than 1% of citizens agreed to sign the contract. Acer has decided to suspend work in Russia At the same time, the company called the war in Ukraine a “conflict”.
