After Ukraine's victory over the Putin regime, the whole world, from North America to Africa and the Middle East, will become a much better, more stable and safer place.
When Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine 24 February, most observers expected the war to end in a few days. But more than a month later, Russian forces only retreated from northern Ukraine after a heavy and humiliating defeat at the Battle of Kyiv. The defeat of Putin's aggressors will be widely supported by the global public, inspired by the resilience and courage of Ukrainian defenders. Russia's defeat will also be of great benefit to the international community.
Chris Alexander, a researcher at the Canadian International Council and former deputy head of the Canadian diplomatic mission in Moscow and Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, wrote about this in an article for the Atlantic Council.
Of course, first of all, Moscow's defeat in the war will benefit Kyiv itself. The era of true independence and European integration will begin. And post-war Ukraine will be a source of inspiration for young democracies around the world. The reconstruction process will be long. But the new Ukraine that emerges from the ruins will become a valuable member of the European community with a strong sense of national dignity and a completely renewed infrastructure.
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< Russia's defeat will also bring enormous benefits to Belarus, where Kremlin vassal Alexander Lukashenko has seized power thanks to Putin's patronage. Ukraine's victory will give a new impetus to the Belarusian democratic movement, which is now largely in exile. Most likely, it will only be a matter of time before the dictator loses power, paving the way for the rise of European Belarus.
Ukraine's success will also give Georgia and Moldova a golden opportunity to regain their sovereignty and regain control of the Russian-occupied enclaves. There is a pro-European government in Chisinau that deserves support. The pro-democracy majority in Tbilisi now demands a better future. Both countries deserve to be whole and free. As long as the Kremlin is disoriented by the defeat in Ukraine, the peoples of the North Caucasus will have a chance to revive their cultural and linguistic diversity. Kazakhstan and other neighboring countries in Central Asia will be able to expand their horizons and find new global markets, as well as launch a new wave of reforms.
Victims of lesser-known Putin's military campaigns and secret wars will also benefit from Russia's defeat. Venezuela will finally be able to change. A huge source of problems would disappear in Libya. Mali and the CAR would get rid of the notorious Wagner mercenaries, who are now accused of organizing the genocide. After six Putin-related coups in three years, Russia's defeat in Ukraine will bring stability to West Africa and the Sahel. Modern Russia is the world's largest sponsor of terrorism. Moscow has long been accused of setting up al Qaeda against the United States. The Kremlin has recently developed friendly relations with the Taliban. Meanwhile, Moscow has supported Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard operations in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. Russia's defeat will upset Iran and weaken other rivals to Moscow.
For years, Russia has aggressively sought to undermine Western democracies and sought social divisions wherever possible. Reducing Russian intervention will give room for better policies and decision-making for governments in Europe and North America. Without the support of the Kremlin's troll factories, it will be much harder for populists to retain power. It is very important that after the Russian defeat comes responsibility for Russian war crimes. This problem is long overdue. From Putin's essay, in which he denied Ukraine's right to exist, to his fascist delusions on the night of the invasion, the Russian leader made no secret of his desire to destroy the Ukrainian state. Mass executions in Bucha and other Ukrainian cities confirm the real nature of the Russian invasion.
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It is now clear that genocide is taking place in the heart of Europe. Eugene Finkler, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, gave a clear assessment of the events in Ukraine: “As a researcher of genocide, I am an empiricist. I usually reject such rhetoric and am skeptical of genocide accusations, because activists use the term everywhere. But not this time. There are actions and there is intent. This is genocide in all respects. Clear, simple and obvious to everyone. Russia's crimes in Ukraine are a reflection of Putin's sense of impunity in his actions on the international stage. From the 2014 invasion of Crimea to the atrocities in Syria, political assassinations and interference in elections in Europe and the United States, the Russian ruler has long behaved as if he were above international law. Ukraine's victory could be a big step towards bringing Putin to justice.
What will be the victory of Ukraine? If the country receives expanded military support from the West, the Ukrainian army will be able to drive Russian forces out of the eastern regions and liberate the southern coast. Air and naval assets will be needed to break Russia's illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and liberate Crimea. Defeated Russia must remain under pressure from international sanctions. It will lose revenue from energy sales as customers gradually turn away from Moscow and look for less geopolitically compromised suppliers. The Kremlin could also potentially face internal unrest sparked by post-defeat shock in Ukraine. A world free of impunity and Putin's interference will be a much better place.
Earlier, Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the head of the OP, made a new forecast about the war in Ukraine and the timing of the end of the active phase of hostilities. During the All-Ukrainian Telethon, he said that the Russian army no longer has a numerical advantage over ours, but they still continue to fight in full-time mechanized units.
According to Arestovich, the active phase of hostilities. should expire by mid-April . If no peace agreement is signed by then, guerrilla warfare will break out.
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