Experts believe that, despite all the shelling of Odessa, the Russian army will not be able to launch an offensive in the south in the near future.
Despite the fact that Russia has made little progress in the Donbas, the control line has hardly moved, and the Kremlin's campaign in the region has virtually stalled. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region remains powerful, and Russian forces have to retreat to the border.
The Russian army continues to storm Azovstal in Mariupol and fire missiles at Odessa. However, the offensive in the south is unlikely to begin, given that the campaign in the Donbass has reached a stalemate. This assessment of the events in Ukraine is given by experts from the Front Defense Program of the Scowcroft Strategy and Security Center in Atlantic Coucil, Colonel of the Marine Corps John Barranco, Colonel of the US Army Benjamin Johnson and Lieutenant Colonel of the US Air Force Tyson Wetzel.
Russian offensive
After Russia launched its campaign in Donbas on April 19, the Kremlin has made very little progress in pursuing its goal of taking control of the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Stopping the offensive on Kyiv and withdrawing its forces from northern Ukraine, Russia sent some battalion tactical groups to the east, where they were to support the offensive. However, despite the numerical advantage, the Russian army was unable to surround the Ukrainian forces deployed south of Izyum.
“We are convinced that the supply of both Soviet and Western weapons (including long-range artillery) to Ukraine has stifled the Russian offensive,” experts said, adding that long-range firepower compensated for Russia's numerical superiority./p>
Therefore, a persistent counteroffensive by the Armed Forces near Kharkiv is pushing Russian forces out of the region north of the city. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Azovstal have so far failed to oust Ukrainian defenders from the plant, which has become the heart of Ukrainian resistance. Russia is also firing rockets at Odessa, but has not yet launched an attack on the city.
“We predict that a major Russian offensive in the south is unlikely in the near future. Given that the battle in eastern Ukraine continues and intensifies, such an offensive would be a repetition of Russia's early mistake of scattering its attention and fire on several operational areas simultaneously, “the analysis said.
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive
Assessing the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces in the northeast of Kharkiv, experts predict that while maintaining the current pace, the Ukrainian military will be able to reach the Russian border in a few weeks or less. This will have a number of potential consequences.
Read also: Armed Forces move to counterattack in Kharkiv and Izyum directions – Zaluzhny
First, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are pushing Russian forces to a distance from which they will not be able to bomb and shell Kharkiv with artillery. Second, Ukraine will thus force the aggressor to move from offensive operations in the south to defensive positions near Kharkiv. The Kremlin will be forced to defend its territory from the Ukrainian attack on Russian Belgorod.
“A short Ukrainian offensive near Belgorod will undermine Russian supply lines critical to the fighting in the Donbas,” the experts explained.
Third, if we force Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv to return to Russian territory, the Armed Forces will be able to bypass Russian troops in Izyum and defeat them with simultaneous attacks from the west and north. Experts also note that there have been many explosions and fires in Russia recently, some of which may have been the result of Ukrainian operations and others of Russian negligence. At the same time, the authors of the report are convinced that the Ukrainian army is pursuing a so-called “deep strike” strategy, which pursues both strategic and psychological goals. On the one hand, these attacks on critical Russian military facilities (weapons depots and fuel depots) exacerbate logistical problems that undermine military operations and slow Russia's momentum. On the other hand, the range of attacks forces the Kremlin to keep air and ground defenses in the region on high alert. Therefore, these forces cannot support Russian operations on the territory of Ukraine.
Support for the United States and its allies
As the war in Ukraine escalates into a protracted conflict, Russia's and Ukraine's ability to generate combat power will become more crucial. According to the authors, Ukrainian military-industrial capabilities are showing positive trends, while Russian ones, on the contrary, are declining. In fact, Russia was left alone in its war. It relies on its own production and repair facilities. At present, Ukraine enjoys the broad support of NATO countries, which supply it with new equipment, as well as repair and re-equip old weapons. Ukraine is also successfully capturing and using weapons thrown by Russian troops.
Read also: Britain can hand over weapons of “higher range” to Ukraine
The authors note that the supply of heavy weapons to the Armed Forces of the United States and other allies has proved effective. And the Ukrainian army was able to quickly and efficiently integrate and use the resulting systems.
“We estimate that the Kremlin's inability to stop or even slow down Western supplies of military equipment affects its success in the Donbas and throughout Ukraine. As long as Ukraine can receive offensive weapons, it will be able to counter Russian forces and fire superiority, prevent Russia's offensive and inflict significant losses on Russia in terms of personnel and equipment, “experts said.
their allies win the race to secure Ukraine's army as heavy weapons and precision fire systems continue to advance. Ukrainian forces use these systems very effectively throughout the country, especially in the Donbas, where the Russian offensive is fading.
“Ukraine's counter-offensive near Kharkiv has been more effective than any Russian offensive in more than a month,” the analysis said. However, they doubt that the Kremlin will try to launch a new offensive in the south before improving its position in the Donbas.
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