What can midterm elections in the USA mean for Kyiv?
Because the invasion of Russian President Vladimir Putin Ukraine is now in its ninth month, with war high on the agenda as Americans prepare to vote in midterm elections next week. Washington led international efforts aimed at strengthening Ukraine's struggle against Kremlin aggression, and provided Kyiv's important military, economic and diplomatic support, but recent statements from both sides of the political divide in the US indicate that this support cannot be taken for granted, the Atlantic Council writes.
The most high-profile comments came from senior Republican and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who said in early October that the incoming Republican-controlled Congress would “not be signing blank checks” for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, a letter sent to US President Joe Biden by a group of 30 Democratic lawmakers calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine was hastily withdrawn in late October after a strong backlash.
While the political debate continues, polling data suggests significant public support for aid to Ukraine. According to the results of a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early October, 73% of Americans believe that the United States should continue to support Ukraine. At the same time, 66% of respondents said that Washington should continue to provide weapons to Ukraine, compared to 51% in a similar survey conducted two months earlier. The latest poll by the University of Maryland showed similar results.
Given that the outcome of Russia's war against Ukraine is still uncertain, the upcoming vote in the US could shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
< strong>Analytical centerAtlantic Council invited experts to share their thoughts on what the midterm elections could mean for Ukraine.
Honorary Research Fellow Atlantic Council< /strong> Daniel Fried
In his view, if Republicans take control of Congress (or even one chamber), the domestic political dynamics in Washington will shift toward confrontation with Republicans wasting for investigations, statements and accusations.
In foreign policy, Republicans will be divided into neo-Reaganist and Trumpist wings. Both camps will attack the Biden administration and push it to a tougher policy on China and Iran. They will also press for more burden-sharing (ie, defense spending) on the part of US allies.
Neo-Reaganists will call for more pressure on Putin, while Trumpists will either advocate withdrawing support from Ukraine or, at the very least, argue that dealing with Russia is in the US national interest. Their position will resemble the “isolationist” position of indifference before the advent of Hitler in the late 1930s.
Democrats and neo-Reagan Republicans will generally support Ukraine. Democrats may split, and several hard-left members of the Democratic Party will take positions similar to Republicans who want to distance the US from Ukraine. But there will be few of them. There will be more Republicans who oppose the continuation of aid to Kyiv. However, Congress is unlikely to go their way.
Calls for negotiations on Putin's terms, meaning that the US should push Ukraine to hand over its people and land to Russia, will grow but are unlikely to prevail as long as the Kremlin leader continues to demand the fruits of victory over Ukraine, which he did not receive and may never achieve. In other words, US support for Ukraine will continue as long as Russian atrocities continue and as long as Ukrainians effectively resist, the analyst believes.
Senior Research Fellow Atlantic Council Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti
According to her, in 2019, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was convinced by his own experience how strongly the domestic policy of the United States can influence the Ukrainian reality. He and his team would be right to worry about next week's US election. It is impossible to predict whether the Republican Party will follow through on its threats to cut aid to Ukraine, but it is certainly a real possibility.
This has been Putin's plan from the beginning. He aimed to cause an energy crisis that would lead to rising inflation and thereby spark popular discontent that would lead to the fall of governments and leaders opposed to him and his war in Ukraine.
If the Republicans win a majority in House of Representatives and will begin to reduce US support for Ukraine, they will act in the interests of Putin.
“Let's hope that the threats in this regard are pre-election posturing and nothing more. It can be argued that Joe Biden and his advisers did not cope with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, aiding Putin in his self-proclaimed genocidal conquest of Europe's emerging democracies is the wrong way to express legitimate criticism of US foreign policy. Whatever the outcome of the midterm elections, the US should not help Putin,” Jayanthi notes.
Professor University of Kennesaw Christina Hook
American public opinion on Ukraine is surprisingly bipartisan and stable. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 73% of Americans agreed that the US should continue to support Ukraine, despite Russian nuclear threats. Two-thirds of Americans say they follow the war closely, which is especially important as US war coverage has declined and reporting has shifted away from telling human stories and focused on important military dynamics.
“These figures indicate that the consensus regarding Ukraine was maintained throughout the routine politicized election cycle. Therefore, regardless of the results of the midterm elections, I expect that most American politicians on both sides will reflect the public sentiment of their constituents, who correctly understand the moral consequences of Russia's brutal violence against Ukrainians. As the politicization of the US election cycle declines after the midterm elections, I expect an increase in bipartisan claims about the strategic importance of a clear Russian defeat to preserving the rules-based global order that underpins US political stability and economic success. Ukraine's struggle for independence from a ruthless adversary resonates with American voters, but the key question after the midterm elections remains whether the new leaders of Congress will be able to convey the national security momentum for Ukraine's victory, and if so, in what way,” Christina Hook emphasized.
Scientist Atlantic Council Doug Klein< /h2>
Support for Ukraine is one of the few issues that has managed to remain largely bipartisan in the United States. Regardless of the midterm elections, the American public, as before, is overwhelmingly in favor of continued aid to Ukraine. It is also likely that the majority in Congress will remain on the side of further support for Ukraine, regardless of the results of the vote on November 8.
This is good news. However, there are voices in both parties calling for a change in policy that will embolden Russia and put Ukraine in a worse position at the negotiating table when that day comes. That is why the Biden administration is reportedly considering a “legislative blitz” during the final session of non-reelected members of Congress to secure another major aid package for Ukraine.
“We have seen in the past how vocal minorities in Congress were able to slow down the work and stop important legislation from reaching the president's desk unhindered. Continuation of aid to Ukraine may become a target if these factions increase their numbers in Congress,” the analyst notes.
According to him, while the consensus in Washington is likely to remain in favor of unwavering support for Ukraine, more active opposition to it means that friends of Kyiv need to step up efforts to communicate with the American public about why this aid is in the interests of the United States. This means understanding that Ukraine's success is also a victory for the United States.
Read also: Biden's job approval rating increased a week before the US midterm elections
Mid-term elections in the USA will be held on November 8. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with 35 seats in the Senate, which makes up a little more than a third of the upper house.
The governing party is often defeated in midterm elections in the United States. Therefore, many expect a similar result this time as well.
The results of the midterm elections will greatly affect the next two years of Biden's stay in the White House. Reuters modeled three options for what might happen to his administration next.
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Why these congressional elections are worth paying attention to, read the article by Oleg Shamshur “Will Trump take revenge on Biden and will Ukraine lose from this”.
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