Such a scenario can be called “Caribbean Crisis-2”. His scheme is considered ideal for the Russian Federation to obtain strategic concessions from the West.
The nuclear power plant shows that the Kremlin has worked out a special scenario for playing the “nuclear” card. Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, writes about this in his material for ZN.UA “War in Europe: the Kremlin's nuclear scenario and what to do in Ukraine”.
According to him, it is possible that a “nuclear-political attack” should become, according to Moscow's plan, the main mechanism for ending the “special military operation”,as well as hybrid nuclear blackmail of the West in a scenario that can tentatively be called “Caribbean Crisis-2”. The probability of such a scenario was discussed in a study by the Center for Global Studies back in 2017. The scheme of the “Caribbean crisis” is considered by the Kremlin to be ideal for obtaining strategic concessions from the West. Vladimir Putin mentioned it periodically since 2007.
“Of course, we are not talking about a one-to-one repetition of a 60-year-old situation. This can be a hybrid option in the spirit of modern approaches, when something that should not be a weapon becomes a weapon – nuclear energy,” Gonchar writes.
He reminds that the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons follows from the official documents of the Russian Federation. The 2020 “Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence” stipulates this in the case of “aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the existence of the state is threatened”. NATO is being led against Russia by the hands of the Kyiv authorities.” Another document, “Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Naval Activity until 2030”, which was adopted in 2017, provides: “In conditions of escalation of the military conflict, a demonstration of readiness and determination to use force using non-strategic of nuclear weapons is an effective deterrent”.
Through propaganda resources, the Kremlin justifies the need to maintain control over the ZNPP and stop “aggressive actions of the Armed Forces” by taking care of Europe's nuclear security. This will, according to the Kremlin's logic, at the same time demonstrate the determination for the USA, NATO and the EU that Russia is ready to go to the end – the “radioactive ash” scenario.
Next to this Gonchar considers it unlikely that the Russian political leadership and military command will dare to use TYAZ,however, there is no particular doubt in their readiness to use the factor of nuclear blackmail both from the standpoint of nuclear energy — the shortage of electricity in Ukraine in the autumn-winter period due to the loss of the main part of the generating capacities of nuclear power plants from the energy balance, and from the standpoint of creating a projection of the threat of an attack by a low-power nuclear warhead .
“Probably, it may seem to the Kremlin that in this way it will be possible to achieve the end of the SVO, the end of Ukrainian resistance and the “restoration of Novorossiya”, which was not achieved in 2014-2015. Probably, the Kremlin dreams that on the basis of the occupied and annexed to the Russian Federation through a pseudo-referendum of the territories of the south and east of Ukraine, the Novorossiysk Federal District can be quickly formed. Thus, the ruling regime of the Russian Federation will ensure a “worthy celebration” of Vladimir Putin's 70th birthday on October 7, 2022 as a “collector of lands”, and Sergei Kiriyenko (the new “curator” of relations The Russian Federation with “L/DNR” – ed.) can increase its weight category in the competition for the Kremlin after Putin,” the author concludes.
Read also: The carefully planned hybrid operation of the Russians at the ZNPP can change the course of the war, but a nuclear explosion there is impossible – Major General of the Armed Forces
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Read more materials by Mykhailo Honchar at the link.
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