Putin has already destroyed the world's nuclear security architecture with his threats and blackmail to use weapons of mass destruction.
One hundred days ago Putin began his invasion of Ukraine , with a warning of a nuclear strike. By glorifying Russia's nuclear arsenal and promising to subjugate Ukraine, he has threatened countries that decide to intervene with consequences “you have never seen in your history.” Russian television has since teased viewers with chatter about Armageddon, writes The Economist.
Thus, Putin has already violated the current international nuclear regime, even if he never uses an atomic bomb in Ukraine. Following such threats, NATO limited the support it was willing to offer, with two consequent consequences. The first is that vulnerable states that look at the world through the eyes of Ukraine will feel that the best protection against a nuclear aggressor is to have their own weapons. Second, other nuclear powers will believe they can win by copying Putin's tactics. If so, then somewhere someone will definitely turn their threat into reality. Such a schedule should not be the destructive legacy of this war.
The nuclear threat was growing even before the invasion. North Korea has dozens of warheads. Iran, the UN said this week, has enough enriched uranium for its first bomb. Although the new Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons will limit the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles in Russia and America until 2026, the treaty does not apply to weapons such as nuclear torpedoes. Pakistan is rapidly replenishing its arsenal. China is modernizing its nuclear forces and expanding them, according to the Pentagon.
All this increase reflects the weakening of moral rejection, which hinders the use of nuclear weapons. As memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki fade, people cannot understand how the detonation of a low-power nuclear charge, such as what Putin could launch, could lead to the destruction of entire cities. America and the Soviet Union have barely coped with a bilateral nuclear confrontation. And the prospect that many nuclear powers will now fight for peace is alarming.
The invasion of Ukraine heightens this concern. Even if Putin bluffs, his threats erode the security guarantees given to non-nuclear states. In 1994, Ukraine surrendered its former Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory in exchange for assurances from Russia, America and Britain that it would not be attacked. By seizing Crimea and supporting separatists in the Donbas region in 2014, Russia has grossly broken that promise. America and Britain, which have largely stayed out, have also broken their promises.
This gives vulnerable states an additional reason to become nuclear. Iran may decide that abandoning the bomb will not bring it long-term benefits, and the presence of the bomb will now cause fewer problems than in the past. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, how will Saudi Arabia and Turkey react? South Korea and Japan have technologists to arm themselves. Such a move by Iran will not inspire confidence in the West's commitment to protect them in a more dangerous world.
Putin's strategy of blackmailing with nuclear threats is even more devastating. For decades after World War II, nuclear powers considered the use of nuclear weapons in combat. But in the last half century, such warnings have been issued only to countries such as Iraq and North Korea, which themselves have threatened to use weapons of mass destruction. Putin is blackmailed by nuclear threats to help his invading forces win the war with conventional weapons.
And it seems to have worked. However, NATO's support for Ukraine has been stronger than expected. But the Alliance does not dare to send “offensive” weapons, such as aircraft. Although US President Joe Biden sent a huge number of weapons, this week he refrained from providing missiles capable of striking deep into Russia. Some other NATO nations seem to believe that Ukraine needs to settle the issue with Russia, as Putin's defeat could push him into a corner with dire consequences.
This logic sets a dangerous precedent. China could do the same if it attacked Taiwan, claiming that the island is already Chinese territory. Thus, more states may begin to accumulate nuclear combat capabilities and weapons. This would be a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which obliges countries to work for disarmament.
Putin's damage will be difficult to repair. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force last year and was supported by 86 states, calls for a reduction in nuclear weapons. However, countries that have such weapons are afraid to become more vulnerable, even if collective disarmament may make sense.
Thorough testing and control of nuclear weapons deserves attention and requires implementation. Russia can be cautious about this, and its resources to do so are dwindling. America could abandon its surface-to-air missiles without compromising its security in exchange for cuts from Russia. Both sides could agree on technical measures, such as refraining from strikes on nuclear warhead control infrastructure and communications during a normal conflict. Ultimately, the goal should be to involve China in these talks.
These talks will be easier if Putin's nuclear tactics fail, from the assurance that he will not strike at Ukraine. This week, Biden wrote that America has not shown any preparations on the part of Russia. However, countries such as China, India, Israel and Turkey, which have access to the Kremlin, must warn Putin of their anger at Russia if, God forbid, he actually uses nuclear weapons.
Read also: US Senate urges NATO to intervene if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine
It is necessary to save Ukraine from a nuclear attack, but it is not enough. The world must also make sure that Putin does not succeed today from his aggression, as he did in 2014. If he sees that his tactics have worked, he will be even more threatened with nuclear weapons in the future. This will happen if he decides that NATO can be intimidated. And it will be harder to convince him that he must retreat. Other countries and autocrats will follow his example. That is why Ukraine needs advanced armaments, economic aid and sanctions against Russia to force Putin's army to retreat.
Those countries that see this as a fleeting European struggle neglect their own security. And those who, in the name of peace, claim that Ukraine needs a truce with Russia right now, so as not to be imprisoned in a war “which it cannot win,” in a war with an enemy who is already lost his sting.
If Putin believed that NATO lacked determination, Russia would remain dangerous. If he were convinced that his nuclear threat was a choice between defeat and a stalemate that would save his face, Russia would be more dangerous than ever.
Earlier it was reported that Ukraine will have to build its own nuclear deterrent . Whatever happens next in Ukraine, the world that existed before February 24 is no more, a new dangerous era has come, in which we will have to learn to live.
