Our species needs to avoid self-destruction.
Scientists say we are close to a key point in our history. According to researchers, humanity will either be able to develop technology to obtain the energy needed to leave the planet, or die in a cataclysm, according to Live science. , we will become a truly interplanetary species in the next 200 years.
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“The earth is a tiny point surrounded by darkness. Our current understanding of physics tells us that we are trapped on a tiny rock with limited resources, “said lead author Jonathan Jiang of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. humanity must increase the use of nuclear and renewable energy and at the same time protect these resources from use by criminals. The next few decades will be crucial: if humanity can give up fossil fuels, it may have a chance.
In 1964, Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev proposed a measurement scheme, later modified by Carl Sagan, to assess the technological capabilities of intelligent species. It all comes down to energy and how much of it – from any source – the species can use for its own purposes, whether space exploration or video games.
According to Kardashev, type I civilization can use all the energy available on the species' home planet, including all energy sources in the earth (fossil fuels and materials that can be used for nuclear energy) and all energy available from the parent star.
Type II civilizations consume 10 times more energy and are able to use all the power of one star. Type III species can go even further and use most of their energy throughout the galaxy.
Mankind still does not reach the first type, but energy consumption is growing every year. A growing number of people use more energy per capita, but this energy has its price: the threat to the biosphere due to carbon and pollutant emissions, and the risk of being able to use energy storage and transportation for destructive purposes.
Self-destruction of civilizations
The dangers of increased energy consumption may explain why we have not yet found signs of the existence of other advanced civilizations. If the Earth is not so special, and the development of life is not a unique phenomenon, then there must be other civilizations in our galaxy. And some of them had to achieve type III indicators.
This means that by the time humanity became intelligent, there should have been other civilizations in the Milky Way that could meet us or leave a “congratulatory gift.” But, as we know, we are still alone in the universe.
Life, especially intelligent life, seems to be very rare. It is possible that some set of processes leads to the destruction of civilization before it reaches a certain technological level. Most of the so-called “big filters” are various forms of self-destruction of beings.
Mankind is already capable of self-destruction, without even reaching the first stage of development according to Kardashev. Several states have nuclear weapons that can destroy all living things. “We are our own Big Filter,” Jiang said.
The trick is to avoid self-destruction while humanity increases its energy consumption enough to exist on several planets at the same time. The presence of humanity on several planets at the same time is a powerful counteraction to self-destruction. But to achieve interplanetary status requires a huge amount of energy, not only to create colonies, but also to sustain urban life.
A turning point
Jiang and his colleagues explored ways to achieve type I civilization. They adhered to the recommendations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which clearly outlines the consequences of continued use of fossil fuels.
If humanity does not switch from fossil fuels to nuclear energy and renewable energy sources as soon as possible, we will do too much damage to our biosphere to continue to climb the Kardashev scale.
The study also predicted an annual increase in the use of renewable and nuclear energy by 2.5%, and it was found that in the next 20-30 years, these forms of energy use will steadily displace fossil fuels. Nuclear and renewable energy sources have the potential to continue to increase production without putting additional strain on the biosphere, and if we continue our current rate of consumption, we will achieve Type I status in 2371.
Jiang admits that the calculations included many assumptions and that the uncertainty of the estimate was probably about 100 years. Yes, scientists have assumed that humanity will find safe ways to deal with nuclear waste, and that increased energy consumption will not lead to disaster. But if humanity succeeds in following this course, we will be able to pave the way for the potential protection of our species for future generations over the next few hundred years.
