This will happen even if warming can be stopped within two degrees Celsius.
The world is warming in response to global climate change, which threatens the viability of many regions near the equator. Even if we manage to hold temperatures to within two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, by 2100 the tropics and subtropics, including India, the Arabian Peninsula and sub-Saharan Africa, will be dangerously hot most of the time, Science alert reports.
Meanwhile, mid-latitudes will experience extreme heat waves annually. Yes, the frequency of dangerous heat is expected to increase 16-fold in Chicago by the end of the century.
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The odds of this not happening are estimated at 0.1% within the projected probability that we will be able to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But still, it is likely that by 2050 the rise in temperatures will exceed the mark of two degrees Celsius.
In that case, the researchers say, “extremely dangerous heat stress will be a regular feature of the climate in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Arabian Peninsula, and much of the Indian subcontinent.”
If the world can't act in concert and fail to take important steps to curb rising temperatures, it could lead to many deaths. Studies show that global warming is already responsible for one in three heat-related deaths worldwide.
Based on these figures, experts predict that deaths could reach record highs in the coming decades as the effects of climate change become more and more obvious.
How people cope with heat stress depends not only on temperature, but also on humidity. Current estimates are based on a measure known as the heat index, which takes into account relative humidity only up to certain temperatures.
Recent studies have shown that at 100% humidity, even young and healthy people cannot survive temperature above 31 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, according to the heat index, temperatures become dangerous when they exceed 40 degrees Celsius, and extremely dangerous above 51 degrees Celsius.
And these are the limits used in the current study. Therefore, it is likely to underestimate the risks. But even using these indicators, humanity faces an unappealing future.
From 1979 to 1998, the dangerous limit of the heat index in the tropics and subtropics was observed 15% of days per year. According to forecasts, by 2050 the heat index will be exceeded on 50% of days, and by 2100 – most.
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25% of these days may be so hot that the temperature will significantly exceed the threshold values.
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