RF Ministry of Finance adjusts the forecast.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects the Russian economy to fall in 2022 at the level of 8.8%. However, next year the Russian economy will begin to recover. This was reported by Interfax.
It is projected that growth in 2023 will be 1.3%, in 2024 – 4.6% and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation in 2022 is above 20%, in 2023 – 6.2% and 4% in 2024.
“The relevant baseline scenario of the socio-economic development forecast was presented by the ministry on April 26 at the presidium of the right-wing commission to increase the resilience of the Russian economy under sanctions,” the statement said. by 12.4% with continued decline of 1.1% in 2023.
Moderate decline and further growth will contribute to high prices and demand for oil, including Russian. Although the average annual oil price in the draft forecast is set at $ 82.6/barrel. 2022, $ 75.2/bar. 2023, $ 67.7/bar. in 2024 and $ 61.2/bar. 2025.
The average annual dollar exchange rate, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, is expected at 81.4 rubles in 2022, 83 rubles in 2023, 85.2 rubles in 2023, 86.9 rubles in 2025.
that the Ministry of Finance proposed at the meeting to adjust a number of parameters of the scenario conditions of the macro-forecast, considering the parameters of the price of Urals oil and the ruble exchange rate excessively optimistic, and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who is chairing the right-wing commission, has instructed that the document be finalized and the final version of the forecast submitted to the government within two weeks.
Read also: It will be recalled that S&P analysts offer 10 years to restore the Russian economy to the level of 2021. The company forecasts a reduction in GDP this year by 11.1%. They predict that by 2023 the decline will slow to 1.9%, and for the year – to 1.6%. But by 2026, the aggressor's GDP will increase again by 1.9%.
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